Common sense, rollbacks, upheavals and belts.
Many lessons were learned during Round 11.
It’s time to collect five of them in a five-step retrospective multi that we like to call FIVE LESSONS LEARNED.
(1) No safe track*
If the recent federal election has taught us anything, there is no safe seat and in the world of AFL football, there is no safe trail.
Richmond found themselves five-goal ahead in the third quarter on Friday night, not before Buddy and the Swans headed home.
Brisbane gave the Giants a head start last Saturday before the Lions got the job done.
Melbourne were 30 points clear at half-time against Freo, before the Dockers broke their winning streak.
On Sunday, when the Magpies appeared to be at home, the Blues fought back in red time to fall into a thriller between old rivals.
The 6-6-6 rule is here to stay, results in biting finishes with center clearances the main objective and footy is better for it.
Perhaps punters can keep an eye on the live markets when looking for serious values if these types of momentum swings continue to occur.
(*Safe tracks still apply when playing on the West Coast or North Melbourne)
(2) Nothing Like Common Sense
Arms up, referees dissent, free kicks galore, handing out 50-yard penalties like the Black Thunders handing out ice cold coke cans.
The AFL is giving some local councils a run for their money in terms of pedantic rules within the rules.
Say what you love about the ending to the Swans v Tigers Friday night thriller at SCG, but an ending like that ruined the buzz of a memorable game.
“Common sense” may have been the logic in not paying Dion Prestia that 50, but all bettors want is a little consistency.
It may be time for the AFL to implement a bit of ‘No Frills Footy’ as every weekend seems to be marred by common sense not being enforced.
Nobody wins, especially the referees.
(3) Melbourne is bleeding and Flagmantle is a thing
Turns out Melbourne can be beaten!
To use another political analogy, in the words of former Prime Minister/Treasurer Paul Keating, Saturday was perhaps the loss Melbourne was to suffer.
Dees’ 17-game winning streak ended on Saturday night, when Freo went BANG in the second half by scoring eight third-quarter goals in what was one of Docker’s most dominant displays.
Special thanks to the 10 Ladbrokes Punters who managed to take Freo at $23 at halftime in our live markets, including one who put $350 on Dockers just to cash in during the 4e trimester.
Maybe these punters also believe in Flagmantle?
The Dockers are now $10 to win this year’s premiership.
(4) Suns can do all eight
After Round 11, the Gold Coast Suns are five wins, six losses and earning a lot of respect in the process.
All talk of Clarko coaching them next year can be trashed, all roads lead to the Suns giving Stewy Dew a contract extension.
A favorable draw towards the second half of the season, facing North Melbourne in Darwin this weekend as $1.06 favorites and some momentum and they could meet again in September.
The Gold Coast Suns are currently $4.50 to make the eight.
(5) Dismal West Coast
The west coast is terrible.
Forget COVID, forget injuries – those excuses don’t apply.
Traveling to Perth to play the Eagles was once football’s most feared game, now it’s a great vacation and percentage booster for the likes of the Western Bulldogs and Richmond.
The Eagles percentage is 49.7 and West Coast looks to be the worst team since GWS in 2013 or Fitzroy in 1996 – at least the Roys in ’96 had good reason to struggle at death’s door.
However, with the Eagles and the North battling for 17e and 18e place on the scale, the market is for the wooden spoon is very competitive with the Eagles even silver at $2 and the North at $1.80
At $2 to win the wooden spoon, West Coast is as good a futures bet as you can make right now.